Cracks in the Armor?

Do Back-to-Back Explosions Expose Cracks in Elon Musk’s ‘Launch and Learn’ Empire?

Anyone familiar with NASA’s approach to building and launching spacecraft knows that the agency will not launch until the time is right, whether the rocket is crewed or uncrewed. Safety is a high priority, and launch directors learned some hard lessons when they lost two Shuttle crews.

Former NASA Administrator Bill Nelson repeated the mantra prior to the launch of Artemis 1: “We fly when we’re ready,” or “We fly when it’s safe.”

For many of us, the approach of SpaceX to testing out a new spacecraft has been refreshing. Instead of attempting to be sure everything is right before a flight, SpaceX has had what might be called a “Launch and Learn” philosophy. With this approach, there is never a failure, because every launch teaches the engineers something that they can use to improve on the vehicle.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t see SpaceX using that philosophy when lives are at stake. I am talking about the developmental phase of a spacecraft. SpaceX is also famous for taking on challenges no one else thought could succeed. For example, they have pioneered the reusability of rockets and they have managed to capture falling boosters for Starship using a mechanism called “the chopsticks,” or “Mechanzilla.”

So, the approach with Starship has been “Launch and Learn,” and even though there hasn’t been a completely successful flight yet, everyone seems willing to wait as SpaceX learned what was going wrong and the company still enjoyed a lot of confidence from the space community because of previous successes.

However, cracks have begun to show in the armor of the Launch and Learn philosophy with Starship launches 7 and 8. Both exploded not far into the flight and rained debris on the land and water below. Most disturbing was the second explosion, which was a mirror image of the first. It seemed that there had been “launches,” but no “learning.” The FAA announced this week that they closed their investigation into SpaceX’s latest mission failure, accepting the company’s findings and corrective actions, yet public confidence remains shaken. (2) Now, for the first time ever, observers are beginning to question whether Starship is going to keep getting better or is there a fatal flaw in the overall design?

I’m not a rocket scientist so I can’t judge the validity of the technical questions that are being raised. I can only say that the unquestioning confidence that SpaceX has enjoyed for quite a long time is beginning to deteriorate. Because of the success of earlier spaceships, NASA is counting on SpaceX for a large part of our space program. With the failure of Boeing’s Starliner, the Dragon spacecraft is the only way for American astronauts to reach the International Space Station. SpaceX remains the leader in low-cost satellite launches for the government and private companies. Starship is also scheduled to be part of the Artemis program as a lunar lander, and, of course, its whole raison d’etre is to take humans to Mars. This latter mission will grow in importance if the Administration’s draft budget for NASA is approved. (3)

For all these reasons, the upcoming launch of Starship will be viewed in a different light; the Launch and Learn philosophy will not be enough. However, not all in the space community have lost faith. Tim Alatorre, COO of Above: Space Development Corporation remains optimistic: “While Above: Space plans to leverage proven existing launch vehicles for our initial deployments, we’re eagerly anticipating the enhanced capabilities that Starship will deliver. Its reusability and massive payload potential will drive down launch costs even further, accelerating our efforts to build scalable, large-scale infrastructure in orbit and beyond.” This sentiment underscores the high stakes, as Starship’s success could unlock new frontiers for private ventures like Above: Space.

One thing remains true about this upcoming launch, SpaceX needs a success.

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References

1. W. Lockett, “Starship Will Simply Never Work,” Medium, March 21, 2025
2. J. Dinner, “SpaceX completes investigation into recent Starship failures, clears the way for Flight 10,” Space.com, August 19, 2025
3. W. Robinson-Smith, “Proposed 24 percent cut to NASA budget eliminates key Artemis architecture, climate research“, Spaceflight Now, May 3, 2024